Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Below Growth Neutral for Fourth Straight Month
May 2026 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
-The overall RMI dropped below growth neutral for the fourth straight month.
-More than half, or 56.6%, of bank CEOs reported that weak grain prices were the top factor constraining farming financial conditions in their area.
-Almost three of four bankers recommend no change to Federal Reserve interest rates at their next meetings on June 16-17.
-Agriculture equipment sales sank below growth neutral for the 33rd straight month.
After three straight months of falling farm and ranchland values, the region’s farm and ranchland price index expanded for May.
-This month, approximately 47.8% of bank CEOs reported that financial conditions for farmers and ranchers had deteriorated from 2025 to 2026.
-According to International Trade Association (ITA) data, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, increased by 7.5% to $2.93 billion.
-ITA data indicate that regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock to China for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, rose by 76.9% to $206.7 million.
OMAHA, Nebraska (May 21, 2026) - According to the May survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral for the fourth straight month.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for May dropped to 45.7 from April’s 47.9. This marks the 15th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community. Approximately, 47.8% of bankers reported that the financial position of farmers in their area had deteriorated in 2026 from 2025,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Farming and ranchland prices: After three straight months of falling farm and ranchland values, the region’s farm and ranchland price index expanded for May to a tepid 50.1 from 48.0 in April. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” said Goss.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, reported that, “Crops in our area of Central Illinois are mostly planted. Recent rains have improved ground moisture levels. Timely rain will still be necessary to raise a good crop. The combination of low grain prices and higher fuel and input costs have all our farmers worried.”
According to the most recent trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 7.5% to $2.93 billion. Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock to China for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, rose by 76.9% to $206.7 million.
Farm equipment sales: The May farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 18.2 from April’s 26.1. This is the 33rd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral.
"The war in Iran has added volatility to an already-pressured agricultural sector, with rising input costs squeezing farmer operating margins, dampening equipment sales and reshaping planting decisions heading into the season."
Banking: The May loan volume index rose to a strong 67.4 from 65.2 in April. The checking deposit index fell to 54.3 from 60.9 in April. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) increased to 60.9 from 56.5 in April.
As stated by Larry Winum, CEO of Glenwood State Bank in Glenwood, Iowa, “The U.S. national debt will most likely exceed $40 trillion before the end of the year. For the first time since World War II, it will be larger than the U.S. economy (over 100% of GDP). It was encouraging to see Senator Chuck Grassley address this on the Senate floor, but there still is no serious conversation in Congress about a plan to balance the budget and reduce our debt.”
Winum singled out this issue as the single biggest economic threat to the future of the U.S.
Hiring: The new hiring index for May sank to 43.5 from 50.0 in April. The rural job market for farms, ranches and non-farm rural employers has remained weak for the last several months. “In April, only 4.2% of bankers reported an upturn in hiring for the month.” said Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The May economic confidence index slumped to 34.8 from 39.1 in April. “In spite of the potential for year-round E-15 ethanol sales, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.
This month, approximately 47.8% of bank CEOs reported that financial conditions for farmers and ranchers had deteriorated in 2026, compared to 2025.
Home and retail sales: Weak income from grain, combined with escalating input costs, spilled over into the housing and retail sales markets. May home sales increased slightly to 47.8 from April’s 45.8. The regional retail sales index increased to 41.3 from 39.1 in April.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
Below are the state reports:
Colorado: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for May dropped to 48.6 from 50.9 in April. The farm and ranchland price index for May improved to 53.4 from April’s 51.2. The state’s new hiring index slumped to 44.7 from 51.4 in April. According to trade data from the ITA, Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 35.3% to $79.7 million.
Illinois: The state’s May Rural Mainstreet Index declined to 41.4 from 43.4 in April. The farm and ranchland price index for May increased to 45.1 from April’s 43.2. The state’s new hiring index for May sank to 37.3 from April’s 42.9. According to trade data from the ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, expanded by 3.5% to $807.3 million.
Iowa: May’s RMI for the state fell to 44.3 from April’s 46.4. Iowa’s farm and ranchland price index for May expanded to 48.4 from 46.4 in April. Iowa’s new hiring index for May sank to 40.3 from April’s 46.3. According to trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 25.4% to $583.1 million.
Kansas: The Kansas RMI for May declined to 54.3 from 56.9 in April. The state’s farm and ranchland price index climbed to 60.1 from April’s 57.6. The new hiring index for Kansas fell to 50.6 from 58.2 in April. According to trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 63.6% to $561.8 million.
Minnesota: The May RMI for Minnesota expanded to 49.4 from April’s 41.3. Minnesota’s farm and ranchland price index inched higher to 42.8 from 41.0 in April. The new hiring index for May sank to 35.8 from April’s 40.5. According to trade data from the ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, climbed by 12.3% to $226.7 million.
Missouri: The May RMI for the state decreased to 40.0 from 41.9 in April. The farm and ranchland price index for May rose to 43.4 from April’s 41.6. The state’s new hiring gauge for May sank to 35.8 from April’s 41.2. According to trade data from the ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 13.2% to $184.0 million.
Nebraska: The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index for May decreased to 51.4 from 53.9 in April. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for May declined to 51.8 from 54.4 in April. Nebraska’s new hiring index dropped to 47.7 from 54.8 in April. According to trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, sank by 16.6% to $271.7 million.
North Dakota: The state’s overall RMI for May decreased to 42.8 from 44.9 in April. The state’s farm and ranchland price index for May increased to 46.8 from 44.8 in April. The state’s new hiring index fell to 38.8 from 44.6 in April. According to trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, declined by 13.1% to $182.4 million.
South Dakota: The May RMI for South Dakota declined to 45.7 from 47.9 in April. The state’s farm and ranchland price index climbed to 52.3 from April’s 48.0. South Dakota’s new hiring index for May sank to 44.8 from 48.0 in April. According to trade data from the ITA, South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 55.1% to $25.6 million.
Wyoming: The overall RMI for Wyoming decreased to 44.4 in May from 46.5 in April. The May farm and ranchland price index climbed to 50.3 from 48.2 in April. Wyoming’s new hiring index slumped to 42.5 from April’s 48.9. According to trade data from the ITA, Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, fell by 0.2% to $2.9 million.